7 highlights of retail’s journey to 2030
SUMMARY:
The Shoptalk 2025 event held in Las Vegas at the end of March gave strong signals about the future of the retail world. Technological transformation, changes in customer behavior, and the restructuring of business models are starting a brand new era in the sector. Brands that want to be successful in this new era need to not only invest in technology; they also need to develop strategies that bring together content, community, data, and human focus.
The 7 highlights of the event will shape the agenda of the retail sector on the road to 2030:
- Agent-to-Consumer (A2C): The era of search is coming to an end, the shopping experience is being redefined with the power of recommendation from AI agents. 10% of sales are expected to come from this channel in 2030.
- Defined Customer: Even in physical stores, it is becoming necessary to know every customer. Customer data is the new frontier of competition.
- Content Factories: Consumers no longer search, they get inspired by content. Brands make a difference with storytelling and content production.
- Social Commerce: Platforms like TikTok and Instagram offer a discovery-to-purchase pipeline in one video. Social commerce is transforming both sales and organizations.
- The Limited Power of DTC: The limits of the direct-to-consumer model are becoming clearer; omnichannel partnerships are gaining traction again.
- Retail Media: This is no longer advertising, it is media investment. Competition shaped by Amazon’s leadership will create clear winners and losers.
- Operational Transformation with Artificial Intelligence: The impact of AI in decision support, planning and pricing is increasing. It is time for strategic transformation, not just automation.
These titles, each important on their own, draw a new direction in retail when considered together. Details in the rest of the article…
The Shoptalk event held in Las Vegas at the end of March featured striking developments that shed light on the future of the retail industry. In this period when consumer expectations are rapidly changing and technological transformation is spreading to every area; the vision of retail is also being reshaped. Among the prominent topics at the event this year, Agentic AI, Unified Commerce and Retail Media were the three most striking for me. However, what particularly caught my attention were the predictions about the direction the sector will evolve in the medium term.
To better analyze today, it is necessary to take a brief look at American retail. The high demand explosion that occurred after the pandemic was followed by a difficult period of increasing costs and decreasing profitability. During this period, many retailers turned to downsizing, simplification and focusing on their core business. Developments such as the sale of Walgreens and the restructuring process of JC Penney are important indicators of the “cleaning up” phase the sector is in. However, like every crisis, this period also offers important opportunities in terms of restructuring and growth with the right strategies. The new customs tariffs that have taken the top spot on the US agenda as I write this article seem to add another dimension to this restructuring process.
If we take 2030 as the medium-term target, the following 7 topics highlighted by industry consultants and analysts at the Shoptalk event are a roadmap for retail:
1. Agent-to-Consumer (A2C): search ends, recommendation begins
AI-powered digital agents like GPT and Claude are radically changing consumers’ purchasing behavior. Instead of searching for a product, users now turn to the suggestions offered by their digital assistants. It is stated that traffic to e-commerce sites will increase by 1300% through these agents by the end of 2024. This significant increase indicates that the “search”-centered digital marketing era is over and a new era — Agent Optimization & Marketing (AO/AM) — has begun.
Rufus, launched by Amazon, is one of the concrete examples of this transformation. Rufus answers user questions and also makes personalized product recommendations. Moreover, it can do this independently of classic shopping sites or marketplaces. This creates a new business model. Now, brands will need to find answers to the following questions:
- “How does the agent recommend me?”
- “How does my product fit into these digital agents’ dataset?”
- “How does the consumer agent integrate with me?”
If retailers do not have strategic answers to these questions, they may lose their digital visibility.
2. Transition from anonymity to identified customer
Approximately 40% of retail transactions in the U.S. are still anonymous — meaning the retailer doesn’t know who the person is making the purchase. This poses a serious obstacle to providing personalized service and building long-term customer relationships. However, with the acceleration of digitalization, the concept of a defined customer is no longer a choice in the retail world, but a necessity.
With the pandemic, the volume of online shopping has increased, which has increased the rate of identified customers. However, in physical stores, a significant portion of customers still shop “unidentified”, without sharing their identity. This creates an experience where brands cannot recognize their customers, and therefore cannot make sense of them or guide them. In an environment where competition is increasingly fierce, this situation is not sustainable.
On the way to 2030, the principle of “knowing every customer” will become one of the most important factors that will enable retailers to gain competitive advantage. Now, identity verification and digital identification will start to become the standard not only in digital but also in physical stores. Sam’s Club, one of the pioneers of this, can digitally identify 50% of its customers who enter the store with the mobile application.
Thanks to these systems, retailers can:
- Provide personalized recommendations based on your shopping history,
- You will be able to plan more efficient in-store layouts by analyzing customer movements in the store,
- It will be possible to manage loyalty programs much more effectively.
3. Content and story factories
The way to connect with consumers is now through direct content. As Jordan Berke puts it, “Retailers now have to think like media companies.” Traditional advertising and campaigns are being replaced by inspiring, interactive, ongoing and community-supported content.
Instead of searching for a product, today’s consumer is affected, inspired and motivated by the content they encounter. A video they watch on social media, a recommendation from a favorite influencer or a shared experience from communities now play a critical role in purchasing decisions. This makes retailers not just “points of sale” but also content production centers.
Retailers who will be successful in the future:
- Able to tell stories,
- Able to inspire,
- Able to produce content together with their own community,
- And it will be necessary to establish structures that can make this permanent.
- Offers members-only product tests,
- It opens up space for them to share beauty advice,
- It provides points, rewards and on-platform visibility in exchange for content.
Users share their experiences, whether in writing or in video. In this way, they contribute to the community and create an emotional bond with the brand. Sephora uses this content not only for marketing purposes but also as a personalization engine. It learns directly from this content what its customers care about and which products they prefer.
In short, content departments are no longer “marketing support units” but are directly transforming into strategic growth engines. Thanks to content:
- Loyalty is created,
- More customer data is being collected,
- Sales are increasing.
The retail of the future will be the stage for brands that not only sell products, but also inspire and have stories to tell.
4. Social commerce volume will grow
Social media platforms are now becoming channels that are used effectively not only for marketing communication but also for direct sales. According to eMarketer, social commerce is expected to reach a volume of $130 billion by 2028. This shows that not only the channel but also shopping behavior is undergoing a radical change.
Platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube now offer a holistic shopping experience where discovery, inspiration, and purchases are all happening at the same time. Product promotion, experience, and purchase guidance can all be done in a single piece of content. Moreover, this flow feels quite natural to the consumer. Especially for the Gen Z generation, this approach is much more interesting than the filtering systems on classic e-commerce sites.
For example:
- Content like “5 favorite summer products” can be much more effective than a Google search.
- Short videos that alert to trends can drive much higher conversions than seasonal catalogs.
This forces brands to manage not only their digital storefronts but also their content chains. The real impact of social commerce is not just at the platform level, but also transforming brands’ organizational structures.
Successful brands do the following:
- Establishing creative collaborations with content producers,
- It opens up space for community-driven content,
- It constantly optimizes content that can convert into sales by supporting it with data.
In this process, the classic campaign management approach is not enough. In the new era, content managers, media planners and sales teams have to work together. Because social commerce is not just about “selling with ads”; it means inspiring with content, connecting with the community and managing this entire process in real time.
In the coming period, brands that use social commerce effectively will surpass their competitors in both sales volume and brand loyalty.
5. DTC (Direct to Consumer) model remains stagnant
In recent years, brands’ desire to reach consumers directly has increased significantly. The DTC (Direct to Consumer) model has stood out with its potential to both increase control and increase margins. However, analyses conducted at Shoptalk 2025 show that the growth potential of this model has now reached saturation.
According to Zia Daniell Wigder, DTC investments are still strategically important, but they are not enough on their own. Multi-channel sales strategies—that is, hybrid structures with both DTC and retail partnerships—are still among the most effective and sustainable.
One of the most striking examples of this is Nike. The brand aimed to increase its operating margins by placing excessive emphasis on DTC sales. However, in the process:
- Relationships with retail partners have weakened,
- Store access has decreased,
- And, more importantly, the capacity for innovation remained limited.
In contrast, rising brands like HOKA followed a balanced strategy, strengthening their DTC channels while maintaining their traditional retail partnerships and broadening their reach. In this way, they maintained brand loyalty and did not lose their multi-dimensional contact with the consumer.
These examples teach the following important lessons:
- High margins alone do not ensure sustainability.
- Operational control is no substitute for customer experience.
- Innovation is fueled by the distribution network and the field.
As a result, the DTC model is stagnating while the omnichannel approach is gaining ground again. Moving into 2030, brands will need to integrate not only direct access but also strong partnerships and a flexible channel structure into their strategies.
6. The lines are clear in Retail Media
Retail Media has become one of the fastest growing revenue streams for retailers in recent years. However, this area is no longer a simple structure where you can just display banners on websites and earn ad revenue. The truth underlined in Shoptalk 2025 was this: Retail Media is now a full-fledged media business.
Jordan Berke summarizes this transformation as follows: “Retail Media is not just an advertising space, it is a strategic media platform.” This change of perspective completely reshapes the expectations of both retailers and advertisers.
Amazon has a market share of nearly 75% in this area. However, players such as Walmart, Instacart, and Kroger are making serious investments to get out of Amazon's shadow and create their own powerful platforms. However, it is not enough to just offer advertising space to be the winner of this competition. The common features of the prominent networks are as follows:
- Strong and differentiated advertising products,
- Broad and targetable access capacity,
- Transparent and detailed measurement tools,
- Powerful go-to-market strategies,
- High competence and integration capability in data usage.
Berke’s point is clear: This area will consolidate very quickly. The winners will win big, while those who cannot differentiate will be quickly pushed out of the system. The future of Retail Media will be determined not only by who provides more traffic, but also by who offers more impact and transparency.
7. Transforming internal operations with artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence (AI) is not only transforming the customer experience in the retail industry, but is also fundamentally redefining the efficiency of internal operations. AI is no longer a “support technology” but has become the foundational infrastructure for decision support, automation, and strategic governance.
One of the prominent examples at Shoptalk 2025 was Walmart. The company achieved a significant productivity leap by supporting its category managers with productive AI systems that:
- Data analysis has accelerated,
- Supply planning has become more accurate,
- Pricing strategies have been optimized,
- And manual reporting processes have almost completely disappeared.
In addition, AI-supported systems provide a more integrated structure between different departments. Logistics, supply, pricing, campaign management and customer service can now be managed as a whole, rather than separately. This means real-time decision-making and agile action capabilities.
As we move towards 2030, the gap between companies that see AI as a mere “cost reducer” and those that position it as an “opportunity multiplier” will become much clearer.
CONCLUSION:
As we move towards 2030, the retail world is being transformed not only by technological tools but also by content, communities, data-driven insights, and human-centered strategies. As we saw at Shoptalk 2025, this transformation is not just theoretical; it is shaped by real applications, measurable successes, and the visions brought to the field by the industry’s biggest players.
Artificial intelligence and content, customer data and experience, social media and sales are no longer considered separately. Each is a leverage of the other. The brands that will be successful in the future will be those that use these elements in an integrated manner. In other words, brands that invest in technology but also do not neglect to establish an emotional connection with the customer will stand out.
To take part in the retail scene of 2030, you need to take steps today. The time to act is now. Are we ready?
